Prediction Paranoia Syndrome

 

From 1967 to 2000 we had 41 climate predictions by government and academic scientists, which are essentially the same thing as Federal government funding now dominates academia.  We will not cite the scientist, organization or bureau responsible for each, but all Federal bureaus and major universities participated in this list.

In 1967 we were told a dire famine would ensue by 1975.  Then in 1969 we were warned that everyone will disappear in a cloud of blue steam by 1989. Then in 1970 we were warned of an Ice Age by the year 2000. That did not happen, but in 1970 we were warned water and food rationing would be in force by 1980.

In 1970 the headlines were reading like the marquees and ads for cheap Sci-Fi movies like "The Blob" under headlines like "Urban Citizens Need Gas Masks by 1985,"  and  "Nitrogen Increase Makes Land Unusable," and "Decaying Pollution Will Kill All The Fish!" and "Killer Bees Attack!"

In 1971 the prognosticators of doom were back on Ice Ages predicting that a big one was coming by 2020 or 2030 and in 1972 another scientist piled on predicting a new one by 2070 and two years later NASA said satellites showed that a new ice age was coming fast!  This was confirmed by another scientist who predicted an ice age, but he was not sure when which led many to expect more predictions of the nebulous kind.

In 1974 a whole new class of predictions was invented by the discovery of the "Ozone Shield," a mythical cover over Earth as solar UV generates ozone from the top of the troposphere, 20 miles up to 5000 feet which saves us from UV sun burns and skin cancer.  Also in that year we saw frightening headlines like "Ozone Depletion a Great Peril to Life" when there is no "Ozone Shield."  It is generated from 20 mile up to 1 mile and responsible for the smog in the Los Angeles valley and every atmospheric scientist knows it, but said nothing is it was creating millions of Dollars in grants.

Then in 1976 we saw the headline "Scientific Consensus Planet Cooling, Famines Imminent" and at least this was consistent with the 450,000 year record of four such events, one every 90,000 years and we are 40,000 years overdue for such an event, but it did not happen, nonetheless we saw many  headlines like, "No End In Sight To 30-Year Cooling Trend."  The panic pushers tired of this so in 1980 they ran, "Acid Rain Kills Life In Lakes."  That died with more research concluding it was natural so they turned to : "Regional Droughts in 1990s" in 1988 which brought to mind the 1930's which are the hottest decade in our history.

In 1988 the panic pushers focused on Washington, DC, the source of all their money with headlines like, "Temperatures in DC Will Hit Record Highs" and on August 28, 1988 Al Gore and Jim Hansen of NASA made their panic presentation to the Joint Committee of the House and Senate on Science and Technology.  This pushed the panic headline art into a more focused art with such as: "Maldive Islands Will Be Under Water by 2018," in 1988, but the sea level did not rise, nonetheless we saw, "Rising Sea Levels Will Obliterate Nations If Nothing Done by 2000" and they have not.

The professional literature started pointing out the flaws in these predictions, but that ended abruptly when the Obama Administration gave the National Science Foundation, The American Geophysical Union $1 million per year to "Get with the program!" the tune changed, but if you poke around you can still find raw data that tells the truth.  Nonetheless...

In 1989 a New York City newspaper was headlined, "New York City's West Side Highway Underwater by 2019" and it is not.  At the turn of the century we saw, "Children Won't Know What Snow Is" in a grammatically awkward incorrect headline.  In 2002 we were warned, "Famine In 10 Years If We Don't Give Up Eating Fish Meat and Dairy" and in 2004, "Britain Will Be Siberia by 2024," and "2008 Arctic Will Be Ice Free by 2018."

This was all followed by "Climate Genius Al Gore Predicts Ice-Free Artic by 2013" from the man who took one science survey course, got a "D" in it and flunked out of Harvard then registered in the University of Tennessee school of Divinity!  The "Genius" label must be a headline writer's joke, but the normally reserved English published: "UK Prime Minister Says 50 Days to "Save The Planet From Catastrophe!"  If that were the case what could be done to avert it?  But then Albert Gore, Jr. did something strange according to yet another headline on the "Climate Gurus" blog.

"Al Gore Moves 2013 Prediction of Ice-Free Arctic to 2014"  If anyone gives Albert Gore, Jr. any credence please know that he has had one college level physical science survey course, free of math or rigor and got a "D" grade in it.  He either tosses this stuff off in utter ignorance or arrogance.  He knows nothing.  Nonetheless, the predictions continue to fly in all directions: "Arctic Ice-Free by 2015" and in 2014, "Only 500 Days Before "Climate Chaos" 2014: Only 500 Days Before ‘Climate Chaos’" over an article that included everything but the coming of Satan.

One of the favorite themes of the "Apocalypse Now" gang is "World Overpopulation" in 1968 headlines and many famous books telling of us turning to cannibalism including famous Paul Ehrlich of Stanford University.  Continuing through 1970 with "World Consumes All Natural Resources" which is literally impossible as there are not enough of us to get the job done.

Perhaps the most famous of all the "gloom-and-doom" headlines were those dealing with the end of petroleum beginning in 1966 with "Oil Gone In 10 Years."  But in 1972 we saw "Oil Gone in 20 Years."  And, In 1970 "Department of Energy: Oil Peaks In The 90's," followed by the headline in 1996, "Peak Oil In 2020" then followed in 2002 by "Peak Oil in 2010," but they then turned to really wild predictions:   In 2006 it was, "Super Hurricanes," and "Manhattan Under Water by 2015"

The greatest offenders of this "Yellow Journalism" have been major newspapers like The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal!  This would be shocking, but for recent events that have exposed print media as the sewer of American Journalism.  May we flush this toilet.

Adrian Vance