Feeding Nine Billion People

"To feed the nine billion humans who’ll be living on Earth in 35 years, we’re going to have to double the amount of food available. That would be a challenge even if those same humans weren’t changing the planet’s climate, making it less friendly to farming. But agriculture’s inefficiencies, misuse of fertilizer, and inappropriate crop choices are actually easy to fix. Feeding the world of tomorrow is technologically feasible with existing tools, and some creative thinking. It’ll just take some work, but that will create jobs for a few years and may even lead to more such work!

Problem:  Low yield:  Farmers will need to produce more food on less land, especially in the developing world.

Solution: Money, seeds, and fertilizer:  Seeds bred or engineered for specific soil and climate types and to resist pests or diseases will be the key, as will business solutions like One Acre Fund’s combination of fertilizer, finance, and training. You will get a big hit just by raising worldwide yields for 16 crops. And then you can stop turning forests into farms.

Problem:  Waste:  For every 100 calories of food grown, people eat only about 35.  Solution:  Sensors and computer apps.

Instead of arbitrary sell-by dates, how about biochemical bacteria monitors that change color when the packages spoil so grocers don’t have to trash good food?  Apps can pair extra food with those who need it. University cafeterias are ditching trays, leading to a 50 percent drop in waste. Eat less meat. That’ll let farms grow food for people instead of cows that use 90% of it making meat inefficiently!

Problem:  Extreme weather:  Droughts and floods powered by naturel climate changes frequently hammer the most productive food-growing regions.  Solutions:  Insurance and genetics:

In India, if rainfall drops below the level to cause crops to fail, some farmers receive rolling insurance payouts instead of going out of business to wait till season’s end.  Smart seeds also help:  Drought Tolerant Maize for the "Africa Project" which has developed new strains to boost yield.

Problem:  Data drought.  Farmers need more and better weather information.  Solution:  Access:  Monsanto paid $930 million for the data-rich ag company Climate Corporation because the future isn’t just seeds and chemicals. It is also timely updates on weather, water, and pests. Radios and cell phones can deliver the latest forecasts, news that will help farmers decide to plant a drought-adapted crop. These varieties produce less harvest, but more than a failed crop so a decision is required.

Contributed by anonymous."
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We received this "over the transom," anonymously and it appears to be sincere and accurate.  There are several competing views of the future in terms of the number of people we will have in the future and whether or not we will survive and thrive or collapse and vanish.

There are two kinds of creatures on Earth:  Those that are permanent and unchanged, like single-celled animals, Protists, and the millions of species that appear, increase in number, peak, decline and vanish as new forms emerge, virtually by magic, but randomly in the wobbly way of Mother Nature.  The fittest survive.  We are in the latter class, but we will run out of time.  There is a way to approximately predict and we are working on a spreadsheet system for people and will publish it. We know enough now to say the end of man is in our distant future and it will be interesting.

Adrian Vance