Seven Events Electing Donald Trump

There are seven events that will elect Donald Trump.  He does not need all seven, but the likelihood they will happen is better than even, in our analysis.

(1)  Equities Market Crash - It began June 24, 2016 with the Brexit election in Great Britain.  It will not be as dramatic from here on, but it is becoming more obvious the stock market was inflated with baseless Bernanke Bucks and it will work them out as all free markets do.  Unfortunately, every Bernanke Buck attracted two real Dollars, those that stand for something like grain, oil, coal or manufactured goods and many will be lost as much of the 17,000 plus DOW 30 index is vapor.

(2) European Union, EU, breakup.  Netherlands, Austria, Finland and France have all expressed interest in getting out of the EU, Britain's exit and the joy that follows will inspire the people of those nations to take action and vote for people who will take them out.  They are parliamentary governments they can call elections any time.  They do not have to wait years for action.  This could snowball and be seen as a rebuke to socialism.  It has not been widely reported, but recently the EU Brussels government produced a list of 30 home appliances it plans to outlaw "to reduce the carbon footprint of the UK."  It included electric tea pots!  That was likely the "last straw" for the British people to have a "Belgique" outlaw their morning tea!

(3) ISIS attacks are coming according to experts who have been accurate about them and it is logical where the FBI admits having 1,000 Muslim cells thought to be ISIS controlled under surveillance.  And, "lone wolves" pop up regularly.  With the Obama Administration and Hillary campaign consistently fumbling this ball it can only work to Trump advantage.

(4)  Honest Statistics:  For the first time we saw a commentator on Fox News say the unemployment rate was really much, much higher than the "5.3%" figure Mr. Obama quotes.  With 95 million people not working from a workforce of 180 million the unemployment rate is 53%, ten times that of the Obama claim!  We have serious doubt about other numbers we hear quoted.  They are many and rather than get tangled in statistical weeds we will say this is a dam ready to burst and it will work well for Mr. Trump.

(5)  Obama Stupid move:  Mr. Obama is overdue for making a really stupid move if we discount the recent gun fiasco.  We really expect to see him do something colossally idiotic only to be responded to by Mitch McConnell with an equally moronic action.  When Mr. Obama put forth his nomination for the Supreme Court vacancy Mitch threw away the chance to ream the nominee Democrat style and uncover a witness to the fact the he turpentined a cat at age 11, or some such.  It could have been a lot of fun, but Mitch is so afraid to be called "racist" Obama lives rent-free in his head with a whip to go along with his telephone and pen.  Mr. Trump could quickly turn Mitch's fear with a few well-placed insults of the kind only "The Donald" can do.

(6)  Hillary indictment:  While we do not see how Hillary beats indictment she may and there prove for all the corruption of Washington, DC once-and-for-all, undeniably.  If it does not happen Mr. Trump will have plenty of witnesses to quote and put on television.  Hillary is the hen that never stops laying, one rotten egg after another.  Hillary is shucked either way and Mr. Trump only needs to sing his favorite song, "She Lies!"

Let us not forget:  We have long thought Mr. Obama would use this indictment as an excuse to cancel the election to save America from Donald Trump.  That is not off our plate.

(7) The least likely, but most horrific event that could happen would be a bank disaster of a kind we have recently seen.  Stories abound of people having trouble drawing as little as $1500 cash from their banks. “They  act like they do not have it!”  If our banks are in that kind of trouble they will invoke the "Cypress Protocol" agreed to internationally when bankers saw how cleverly Cypriot bank managers handled their crisis.  They declared  depositors gave them money in return for bank equity!  Therefore, if the bank became insolvent the depositor's money vanished!

An event of this kind, while unlikely, was written into our banking practice literature at the international bankers meeting soon after the Bank of Cypress calamity and is now policy for US banks!  

All banking law is based on precedents:  If they did it you can.  You should check to see if your bank has that policy as some local banks do not.  Ask to see the charter, which they are required to show you on request.  What you are looking for will be the last item. If they refuse, take your money and run.

While all of these events are possible it is not likely they will all come to pass between now and the election, but the reality of some will catapult Mr. Trump into the Presidency like a man shot from a cannon.

Adrian Vance

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