In the beginning phases of an "election cycle" journalists use polls to create news stories and we here give you a sophisticated example of synthesized journalism:
This recent poll from New Hampshire, which has not had a stellar record for picking nominees or Presidents, but has been important, is very interesting. Especially since they included a second choice which is every statistician's dream and nightmare simultaneously, because:
This recent poll from New Hampshire, which has not had a stellar record for picking nominees or Presidents, but has been important, is very interesting. Especially since they included a second choice which is every statistician's dream and nightmare simultaneously, because:
(1) You can derive new information manipulating the added statistic and (2) you can really screw up. Let us play the game:
Suppose we add the two figures to generate a product index where the winning score would the the lowest number, like golf, as the most desirable outcome is the lowest score, i.e. to be "1."
On that basis Scott Walker has the lowest score of "3" and Rand Paul comes in second at "4" with Jeb Bush at third with "5." From that point on, in order, we see Marco Rubio, Donald Trump, Chris Cristy and Ted Cruz. We go no farther as it should be clear the ranking has become random at this point and of little significance.
Nonetheless, this is an interesting exercise in statistical analysis and the way these rankings are done and how the major media makes a story out of virtually nothing.
Since the Fox interview with Megyn Kelly, Jeb Bush was looking much stronger until her flawed question exploded all over the TV's of America. What kind of sense does it make to consider, "If you knew then what you know now would have invaded Iraq?"
No such situation could ever exist thus her premise was flawed by being ridiculous. Jeb's real mistake was answering such an idiotic question. He could have captured the moment saying, "If I knew an hour ago what I know now I would not have come here," etc. We love Megyn, but she does have ditsy moments and Jeb only made it worse trying to patch her up by later denying his first answer to a question he should have challenged in the first place.
Otherwise, we liked the interview as we overlooked the question.
Jeb has a very strong record as a conservative, effective Governor and given the suicidal path of the Obama Administration we feel the "boat anchor" effect of being a "Bush" will fade, but Jeb is going to have to get sharper in the hot seats.
Adrian Vance
Suppose we add the two figures to generate a product index where the winning score would the the lowest number, like golf, as the most desirable outcome is the lowest score, i.e. to be "1."
On that basis Scott Walker has the lowest score of "3" and Rand Paul comes in second at "4" with Jeb Bush at third with "5." From that point on, in order, we see Marco Rubio, Donald Trump, Chris Cristy and Ted Cruz. We go no farther as it should be clear the ranking has become random at this point and of little significance.
Nonetheless, this is an interesting exercise in statistical analysis and the way these rankings are done and how the major media makes a story out of virtually nothing.
Since the Fox interview with Megyn Kelly, Jeb Bush was looking much stronger until her flawed question exploded all over the TV's of America. What kind of sense does it make to consider, "If you knew then what you know now would have invaded Iraq?"
No such situation could ever exist thus her premise was flawed by being ridiculous. Jeb's real mistake was answering such an idiotic question. He could have captured the moment saying, "If I knew an hour ago what I know now I would not have come here," etc. We love Megyn, but she does have ditsy moments and Jeb only made it worse trying to patch her up by later denying his first answer to a question he should have challenged in the first place.
Otherwise, we liked the interview as we overlooked the question.
Jeb has a very strong record as a conservative, effective Governor and given the suicidal path of the Obama Administration we feel the "boat anchor" effect of being a "Bush" will fade, but Jeb is going to have to get sharper in the hot seats.
Adrian Vance
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