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Wednesday, July 05, 2017

The North Korean Question

Kim Jong Un

North Korea is the enigma of our time.  How can so many people tolerate such a regime while planted between one thriving elected representative government, enjoying material goods of the world and personal freedom and another moving that way when they should be able to overthrow their chubby, bad-haircut, despot in one insurrection.  Dying fighting for something is better than lying down and letting them run over you.  You could win!

When we plugged North Korea into a test analysis of our Arnot Hypothesis it is clear General MacArthur was right and we should have nuked them in 1953 to make an example of them that leader of the world America would no longer tolerate war on this planet and perpetrators would have a less-than 24 hour life expectancy once they had invaded another nation.  Harry Truman failed us in his moment at the threshold of greatness as Eleanor Roosevelt, on the urgings of Soviet agents Alger Hiss and Harry Dexter White convinced him "Nuclear weapons are too horrible to use," to give Stalin a ticket to nuclear power.

Perhaps the greatest author of this time on matters of this kind is Dr. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Fellow of the Hoover Institution of Stanford University. He is well known in the intelligence information profession as a man who in a competition with 16 other analysts beat them all roundly with his predictions of world events some years ago.  He has apparently quantified the variables in international relations, but has not released any math on it, which we can understand as nothing can be as cranky as mathematicians.

Dr. Bueno de Mesquita's book "Principles of International Politics" is 588 pages of heavy-duty reading and unlike most such books where the key hypothesis is in the center of the work as most non-fiction authors work up to their hypothesis, declare it and then back out covering their butts in the remaining half.  Dr. Bueno de Mesquita builds all the way to the end.  In the next to last chapter he wrote, "...when the challenger's power rises quickly first to equal and then to overtake the dominant state, a wrenching, system transforming power transition is likely to occur."  In other words, "The poo-poo hits the propeller!"

We have an opportunity to incite an upset by the population with thousands of air-drops of small weapons that could turn the NK regulars on the regime if Dr. Bueno de Mesquita is correct, but are we that clever?  There is one element in the system that is not in the Bueno de Mesquita equation:

Kim Jong Un has been sold on the idea of the power of a nuclear electromagnetic pulse weapon, which has never been field tested, but much written about by the usual grant-sucking panic mongers when they are not pushing "anthropogenic global warming."

Panic pushers claim a high altitude thermonuclear explosion will produce an electromagnetic impulse that will destroy power grids, render America dark for months to years as all transformers would melt, car ignitions fail, hair dryers explode in hand and so on...  All such equipment is enclosed in steel and aluminum cases that function as "Faraday cages" which conduct said impulse around the equipment within, thus protecting it.

The sun produces such impulses occasionally and the worst in our industrial era history was in 1857 when one knocked out some telegraph systems that took weeks to repair in horse and buggy days. Some damage of that kind could be experienced by units in plastic boxes, but all metal enclosed units would be unaffected.
  
In 1857 most of what we used electrically was exposed, today most of what we use is enclosed in metal cases that shield said impulses and there is no effect.  Computers and transformers are good examples. while hair dryers and some electrical appliances are susceptible as they are enclosed in plastic.  Automobile ignitions and systems are safe as they are in metal car bodies, save Corvettes. Kim Jong Un may think he can disable America with a single nuclear blast in space over Kansas City as it is the center of the nation.  No cigar, Kim. You are just going to make President Donald J. Trump mad and the next big flash you see is your last.

Meanwhile back on page 500 of Dr. Bueno de Mesquita's work, we see that for war "...conditions exist when the weak are expected to be belligerent, perhaps even more belligerent than the strong."  So we should expect Kim Jong Un to do something stupid requiring that we nuke Pyongyang which we feel could well bring peace to the world, or at least during the term of a President of America who understands that being a cop takes some muscle from time to time.
He will answer the North Korean question.

Adrian Vance


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