Dr. Helmut Norpoth
Political Science Professor Helmut Norpath, has accurately called the results of the last five presidential elections, and he certainly has tenure, says Donald Trump has an 87% chance of defeating Hillary Clinton despite Clinton being ahead in the professional polls. Having been raised in academia I can tell you this guy will be running alleys for a year when this happens.
And, this does not surprise us as the "pros" are all working for major media. We have noticed they tell their clients what they want to hear to within a week, then suddenly there is a shift. We then see articles about Juno, a moon of Jupiter, "...in retrograde, which is not a small town in Illinois, but one of those astrophysics things and a signal to the insiders that something is wrong in the henhouse.
Norpoth’s model has correctly predicted the outcome of the popular vote for every election since 1996, including the 2000 race where Al Gore won the popular vote but George W. Bush took the presidency which leads us to believe that the usual Democrat ballot box stuffing failed, but it did elect Al Franken in Minnesota from the car trunk of a Saint Paul, Minnesota election official. Saint Paul has a long history of being a hideout for on-the-lam mobsters.
“It usually turns out that the candidate who does better in his party’s primary beats the other guy who does less well,” says Norpoth, as Trump’s victory margin in New Hampshire and South Carolina compare to Clinton, who lost in New Hampshire, and this is a determinant in his model.
The other factor is the “pendulum swing,” which makes it far more likely for a change of government if one party has been in power for two terms.
Norpoth said he has gone “all in” on a Donald Trump victory and is sticking with his bet. He has put $500 on a legal bet on Trump.
“There are also quite a few colleagues of mine who have a prediction that Trump is going to make it,” added the professor.
Many Trump supporters now claiming the media narrative the election is a foregone conclusion is an attempt to dispirit Trump voters.
A confidential memo obtained from Correct The Record Democrat Super PAC, reveals a plan to “barrage” voters with high frequency polls showing Hillary ahead and declaring " the election is over,” again to quench voting. This was seen in the English Brexit vote which completely contradicted polls saying "Brexit;" British Exit from the European Union, would fail.
Wikileaks Emails show Democrat operatives encourage oversampling of Democrats in polling in order to “maximize what we get out of our media polling.” They poll many more Democrats than they should in order to make people believe that Hillary’s lead is far greater than it is as people like to feel they were on the winner's side.
Norpoth’s forecast of a Trump victory mirrors what’s taking place in the betting markets, with British bookmakers revealing that 65% of all bets on the market have backed Trump to win the election, quite similar to what happened before the Brexit vote where media polls were shown to be wrong. In any case Dr. Norpoth is a brave man.
Norpoth’s model has correctly predicted the outcome of the popular vote for every election since 1996, including the 2000 race where Al Gore won the popular vote but George W. Bush took the presidency which leads us to believe that the usual Democrat ballot box stuffing failed, but it did elect Al Franken in Minnesota from the car trunk of a Saint Paul, Minnesota election official. Saint Paul has a long history of being a hideout for on-the-lam mobsters.
“It usually turns out that the candidate who does better in his party’s primary beats the other guy who does less well,” says Norpoth, as Trump’s victory margin in New Hampshire and South Carolina compare to Clinton, who lost in New Hampshire, and this is a determinant in his model.
The other factor is the “pendulum swing,” which makes it far more likely for a change of government if one party has been in power for two terms.
Norpoth said he has gone “all in” on a Donald Trump victory and is sticking with his bet. He has put $500 on a legal bet on Trump.
“There are also quite a few colleagues of mine who have a prediction that Trump is going to make it,” added the professor.
Many Trump supporters now claiming the media narrative the election is a foregone conclusion is an attempt to dispirit Trump voters.
A confidential memo obtained from Correct The Record Democrat Super PAC, reveals a plan to “barrage” voters with high frequency polls showing Hillary ahead and declaring " the election is over,” again to quench voting. This was seen in the English Brexit vote which completely contradicted polls saying "Brexit;" British Exit from the European Union, would fail.
Wikileaks Emails show Democrat operatives encourage oversampling of Democrats in polling in order to “maximize what we get out of our media polling.” They poll many more Democrats than they should in order to make people believe that Hillary’s lead is far greater than it is as people like to feel they were on the winner's side.
Norpoth’s forecast of a Trump victory mirrors what’s taking place in the betting markets, with British bookmakers revealing that 65% of all bets on the market have backed Trump to win the election, quite similar to what happened before the Brexit vote where media polls were shown to be wrong. In any case Dr. Norpoth is a brave man.
Adrian Vance
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