;
Tuesday, February 09, 2010
Reading Rasmussen
The Scott Rasmussen organization appears to be the best or one of the two best, political polling organizations. We have followed them closely detecting only a slight bias to the left, but that much deference may be "to power" for business.
Rasmussen uses totally automated telephone polling with the same voice and script, response by keyed numbers thus removing several variables vexing other pollsters. One result is that Rasmussen popularity ratings for Mr. Obama are ten points under those of other polls.
It is likely that in face-to-face or live calls the contact does not want to appear racist and will speak more positively of Mr. Obama to a person than a machine. Thus Rasmussen data better translates into voting patterns and it is not surprising Rasmussen was so much more accurate than his competitors in the 2008 election. According to Rasmussen only 44% of "likely voters" approve of Mr. Obama. Other pollsters have him consistently over 50%, but that simply is not borne out by what we read, see, hear and feel.
Mr. Obama did get an 11% bounce from the State of the Union, which is quite good, going from -15% to -4%, but now down to -17%, in the difference between the pro-Obama and anti-Obama groups. Thus, TV talkers and politicians who say, “Obama’s personal ratings are still high,” are wrong even if 50% is the line.
The bottom line will be the November 2nd mid-term election and with a long Congressional recess between now and then anything can happen. This will be the season for “teabagger” summer soldiers to be out in numbers making lots of noise and getting much time on Fox, but nowhere else as Katie Couric and Chris Matthews wonder where the viewers went as they avoid the movement. Chris is down so far he can’t even make the half-million cut to get ranked in the national Arbitron.
It looks like a “long, hot summer” for the people who like to tell you what to think as we continue reading Rasmussen.
Adrian Vance
Rasmussen uses totally automated telephone polling with the same voice and script, response by keyed numbers thus removing several variables vexing other pollsters. One result is that Rasmussen popularity ratings for Mr. Obama are ten points under those of other polls.
It is likely that in face-to-face or live calls the contact does not want to appear racist and will speak more positively of Mr. Obama to a person than a machine. Thus Rasmussen data better translates into voting patterns and it is not surprising Rasmussen was so much more accurate than his competitors in the 2008 election. According to Rasmussen only 44% of "likely voters" approve of Mr. Obama. Other pollsters have him consistently over 50%, but that simply is not borne out by what we read, see, hear and feel.
Mr. Obama did get an 11% bounce from the State of the Union, which is quite good, going from -15% to -4%, but now down to -17%, in the difference between the pro-Obama and anti-Obama groups. Thus, TV talkers and politicians who say, “Obama’s personal ratings are still high,” are wrong even if 50% is the line.
The bottom line will be the November 2nd mid-term election and with a long Congressional recess between now and then anything can happen. This will be the season for “teabagger” summer soldiers to be out in numbers making lots of noise and getting much time on Fox, but nowhere else as Katie Couric and Chris Matthews wonder where the viewers went as they avoid the movement. Chris is down so far he can’t even make the half-million cut to get ranked in the national Arbitron.
It looks like a “long, hot summer” for the people who like to tell you what to think as we continue reading Rasmussen.
Adrian Vance
Monday, February 08, 2010
Not What They Thought
In a Sunday morning broadcast US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, interviewed by ABC’s Jake Tapper for “This Week” gave an unsettling performance with a perfect Ivy League lisp, but body language continually asking, “Do you believe this?”
The sideways glance so much a part of the Geithner performance is a classic “flight” posture, i.e. “I’m ready to flee if you attack!” pose that is unsettling and destroys confidence in his content. What did he say?
Geithner said the U.S.is in no danger of losing its AAA debt rating even though the Obama administration plans a $1.6 trillion budget deficit in 2010. Meanwhile economists and international bankers of all kinds are saying we will soon lose our AAA debt rating and perhaps the world reserve currency status. The only thing holding the Dollar up is a worse condition for the Euro, the fiat money of all time with more opportunities for corruption than the Chicago City Council. When asked whether a downgrade is a concern. “That will never happen to this country,” all the while looking “wall-eyed” at Jake Tapper.
Geithner claims world investors turn to U.S. Treasury securities and Dollar-denominated assets whenever they are worried about global stability. That may have been true, but it is no longer the case.
Nonetheless, the Euro appears to be falling apart structurally having dropped from a peak of $1.51 per to $1.36 in about two months due to member deficit defaults with no sign of an end to the trend. Thus Mr. Geithner may be right, but only due to even greater incompetence and corruption than we have. This is not the way to run the world economy.
We are now in the hands of the disciples of John Maynard Keynes who advocated borrowing to prosperity without a single instance of success from FDR and the Soviets to N. Korea and Uganda. It does not work for you, me, a nation or the world.
If we want to have an expanding economy we have to reduce taxes and put laws in place that guarantee what will be for at least one term so the 12 million people who know how to create and run businesses can plan for at least four years before the elected class goes nuts again and screws everything up. That is their pattern. It was never more apparent than what we saw on “This Week” with Timothy Geithner and Jake Tapper. A great moment in television, but not what they thought .
Adrian Vance
The sideways glance so much a part of the Geithner performance is a classic “flight” posture, i.e. “I’m ready to flee if you attack!” pose that is unsettling and destroys confidence in his content. What did he say?
Geithner said the U.S.is in no danger of losing its AAA debt rating even though the Obama administration plans a $1.6 trillion budget deficit in 2010. Meanwhile economists and international bankers of all kinds are saying we will soon lose our AAA debt rating and perhaps the world reserve currency status. The only thing holding the Dollar up is a worse condition for the Euro, the fiat money of all time with more opportunities for corruption than the Chicago City Council. When asked whether a downgrade is a concern. “That will never happen to this country,” all the while looking “wall-eyed” at Jake Tapper.
Geithner claims world investors turn to U.S. Treasury securities and Dollar-denominated assets whenever they are worried about global stability. That may have been true, but it is no longer the case.
Nonetheless, the Euro appears to be falling apart structurally having dropped from a peak of $1.51 per to $1.36 in about two months due to member deficit defaults with no sign of an end to the trend. Thus Mr. Geithner may be right, but only due to even greater incompetence and corruption than we have. This is not the way to run the world economy.
We are now in the hands of the disciples of John Maynard Keynes who advocated borrowing to prosperity without a single instance of success from FDR and the Soviets to N. Korea and Uganda. It does not work for you, me, a nation or the world.
If we want to have an expanding economy we have to reduce taxes and put laws in place that guarantee what will be for at least one term so the 12 million people who know how to create and run businesses can plan for at least four years before the elected class goes nuts again and screws everything up. That is their pattern. It was never more apparent than what we saw on “This Week” with Timothy Geithner and Jake Tapper. A great moment in television, but not what they thought .
Adrian Vance
Sunday, February 07, 2010
"...Thought of Killing Myself!"
Phil Jones, Ph.D., East Anglia University, Leeds, England Climate Research Unit Director is quoted by the London Times today, of considering following his co-conspirator David Kelly, Ph.D. in suicide as a result of their exposure in the “ClimateGate” scandal. But, Dr. Jones excused himself saying, “I am just a scientist. I have no training in PR or dealing with crises.” How about “coward,” doesn’t it belong in that sentence just before "scientist"?
Death is the ultimate penalty and seemingly too severe, but look at the crimes these men have committed: They have taken over $100 billion of US taxpayers money, a little over $600 from every working man and woman in America for the purpose of falsifying every science textbook since 1988 and ruining the education of every physical scientist from 1988 to date. How many lives would have been saved if that money had been used on cancer research? Certainly more than two.
As a result of politically correct environmentalism every university science class now begins with a five to ten minute indoctrination not unlike Nazi Germany's teaching Aryan superiority in their academia so effectively 95% of all professors voted for Hitler. We are now devoting ten to 20% of the science instruction time to nonsense for which parents pay $40,000 per year at the “finer schools.”
Today “scientists” do television commercials documenting bizarre ideas requiring molecules to have tiny pilots, Divine or Satanic intervention. I cannot laugh at these people any more. They have warped science and America terminally.
History says justice will come in collapse, riot and revolution. Just because you don’t carry a gun and kill people doesn’t mean you cannot commit capital crimes. These men have murdered millions of minds and will soon be responsible for as many deaths. People do not want to believe top scientists are the criminals of our time, but that is what Phil Jones, Michael Man and James Hansen have become.
Dr. Jones is complaining of getting death threats, so we should forgive and return his position? He worked to ruin one full generation of scientists who will not recover. “…thought about killing myself?,” well don’t stop there Dr. Jones. We can recommend several ways that don’t even hurt, much.
Adrian Vance
Death is the ultimate penalty and seemingly too severe, but look at the crimes these men have committed: They have taken over $100 billion of US taxpayers money, a little over $600 from every working man and woman in America for the purpose of falsifying every science textbook since 1988 and ruining the education of every physical scientist from 1988 to date. How many lives would have been saved if that money had been used on cancer research? Certainly more than two.
As a result of politically correct environmentalism every university science class now begins with a five to ten minute indoctrination not unlike Nazi Germany's teaching Aryan superiority in their academia so effectively 95% of all professors voted for Hitler. We are now devoting ten to 20% of the science instruction time to nonsense for which parents pay $40,000 per year at the “finer schools.”
Today “scientists” do television commercials documenting bizarre ideas requiring molecules to have tiny pilots, Divine or Satanic intervention. I cannot laugh at these people any more. They have warped science and America terminally.
History says justice will come in collapse, riot and revolution. Just because you don’t carry a gun and kill people doesn’t mean you cannot commit capital crimes. These men have murdered millions of minds and will soon be responsible for as many deaths. People do not want to believe top scientists are the criminals of our time, but that is what Phil Jones, Michael Man and James Hansen have become.
Dr. Jones is complaining of getting death threats, so we should forgive and return his position? He worked to ruin one full generation of scientists who will not recover. “…thought about killing myself?,” well don’t stop there Dr. Jones. We can recommend several ways that don’t even hurt, much.
Adrian Vance
Saturday, February 06, 2010
Doing it with our money!
FDR was elected in November 1930 and soon after there was an Al Smith commemorative dinner in New York City; all top Democrats would attend. FDR brought with him a letter from President Herbert Hoover asking that FDR use his power to get the Democrat dominated Congress to pass a law limiting the withdrawal and export of foreign gold for a few years until we could get things in order. He passed the letter around; all were amused as he planned to do nothing making the situation worse so Democrats would look better when they would come in and spend us to prosperity per the dubious hypotheses of John Maynard Keynes.
The result was misery for millions as foreign gold deposits supporting our currency left effectively taking billions out of circulation. Banks fell like stover after a combine. Eight years later a tearful FDR Secretary of the Treasury, Henry Morganthau testified to Congress they had spent billions, unemployment was still high, with many working in American gulags called CCC Camps and now they had, “all this debt!” Surely Mr. Obama knows this history or Columbia and Harvard failed just as high schools are failing today thanks to revisionist history and environmental science.
On page nine of Mr. Obama’s budget we find: “All told, as of the end of November 2009, about 50 percent of Recovery Act funds—or $395 billion—has been either obligated or is providing assistance directly to Americans in the form of tax relief. By design, the bulk of the remaining 50 percent of Recovery Act funds will be deployed in the coming months of 2010 and during the beginning of 2011 to support additional job creation when our economy continues to need a boost.”
Is it any coincidence those are precisely the times the Democrats will need a political boost? Clearly Mr. Obama has taken his lesson from FDR at the Al Smith 1931 commemorative dinner and not the 1938 testimony of Henry Morganthau. And, he is doing it with our money!
Adrian Vance
The result was misery for millions as foreign gold deposits supporting our currency left effectively taking billions out of circulation. Banks fell like stover after a combine. Eight years later a tearful FDR Secretary of the Treasury, Henry Morganthau testified to Congress they had spent billions, unemployment was still high, with many working in American gulags called CCC Camps and now they had, “all this debt!” Surely Mr. Obama knows this history or Columbia and Harvard failed just as high schools are failing today thanks to revisionist history and environmental science.
On page nine of Mr. Obama’s budget we find: “All told, as of the end of November 2009, about 50 percent of Recovery Act funds—or $395 billion—has been either obligated or is providing assistance directly to Americans in the form of tax relief. By design, the bulk of the remaining 50 percent of Recovery Act funds will be deployed in the coming months of 2010 and during the beginning of 2011 to support additional job creation when our economy continues to need a boost.”
Is it any coincidence those are precisely the times the Democrats will need a political boost? Clearly Mr. Obama has taken his lesson from FDR at the Al Smith 1931 commemorative dinner and not the 1938 testimony of Henry Morganthau. And, he is doing it with our money!
Adrian Vance
Friday, February 05, 2010
The "Corpse-Man"
The Obama story is reading more like “The Emperor’s Clothes” every day. Rush Limbaugh is making a strong case bit-by-bit such that we are down to two choices: The moves Mr. Obama is making are the product of an intelligent ideologue or an idiot.
The idea Barack Hussein Obama could be a consummate politician vanished with his reaction to three nationalized state elections where he was very much the issue, losing all three with large numbers against him in previous Democrat strongholds. A smart opportunist, like Bill Clinton, would have shifted gears, tossed his hymnal, picked up a new playbook and run like Hell to get ahead of the parade to lead, but Mr. Obama did not.
In the crazy way these things unravel his slavishly reading every symbol from the TelePrompTer™ saying “corpse-man” for “corpsman,” correctly pronounced “core-man,” was just the trigger telling America and the world this man is not very smart. This will be a great gag track on European You Tube.
We have long felt Mr. Obama would not finish one term because there is no “there” there. By nothing more substantial than intuition we have long felt there was nothing substantial in the man. It is only a matter of time before the sharks with whom he swims turn on him. They are people who want someone to worship or sacrifice. Such is the obsession for power.
We expect the people to confirm the national psyche with a rash of new “Things are so bad…” comments and jokes. Critical mass for such humor is undefined and perhaps unquantifiable, but it exists as surely as the “dark matter” of which physicists speak of in hushed tones.
Perhaps the Rassmussen organization could conduct a telephone poll of such jokes and feelings, indexing them for a measure of how long Mr. Obama has before Nancy Pelosi or Hillary Clinton insists on seeing the birth certificate. They are his greatest threats, but if fable turns true a small boy will appear and ask the question for which the people will demand an answer.
It appears Mr. Obama is figuratively and ironically, in his own words, a “corpse man.”
Adrian Vance
The idea Barack Hussein Obama could be a consummate politician vanished with his reaction to three nationalized state elections where he was very much the issue, losing all three with large numbers against him in previous Democrat strongholds. A smart opportunist, like Bill Clinton, would have shifted gears, tossed his hymnal, picked up a new playbook and run like Hell to get ahead of the parade to lead, but Mr. Obama did not.
In the crazy way these things unravel his slavishly reading every symbol from the TelePrompTer™ saying “corpse-man” for “corpsman,” correctly pronounced “core-man,” was just the trigger telling America and the world this man is not very smart. This will be a great gag track on European You Tube.
We have long felt Mr. Obama would not finish one term because there is no “there” there. By nothing more substantial than intuition we have long felt there was nothing substantial in the man. It is only a matter of time before the sharks with whom he swims turn on him. They are people who want someone to worship or sacrifice. Such is the obsession for power.
We expect the people to confirm the national psyche with a rash of new “Things are so bad…” comments and jokes. Critical mass for such humor is undefined and perhaps unquantifiable, but it exists as surely as the “dark matter” of which physicists speak of in hushed tones.
Perhaps the Rassmussen organization could conduct a telephone poll of such jokes and feelings, indexing them for a measure of how long Mr. Obama has before Nancy Pelosi or Hillary Clinton insists on seeing the birth certificate. They are his greatest threats, but if fable turns true a small boy will appear and ask the question for which the people will demand an answer.
It appears Mr. Obama is figuratively and ironically, in his own words, a “corpse man.”
Adrian Vance
Thursday, February 04, 2010
More Than Bernie Madoff
The nimble noggins at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “…one of the most respected bureaus in the world,” according to their PR releases, are backing into crediting water vapor with responsibility for heating the atmosphere in a new paper by Dr. Susan Soloman both of NOAA and IPCC, the notorious UN consortium of fund fleecers.
The new Soloman paper, published in the journal SCIENCE, “…one of the most respected in the world,” according to their PR handouts, is now discussing the role of water vapor in the upper atmosphere, at the edge of the troposphere. This is a strange approach to the obvious truth and one well qualified by Dr. Soloman’s continuing insistence that man is to blame.
We call it a stange approach because the amount of water vapor at the top of the troposphere or bottom of the stratosphere is about 1/1000th what it is in the lower atmosphere due to low temperatures causing precipiation. Again more magic is assumed in postulating yet another “shield” when none can exist as gases cannot make surfaces.
The only reflectors, walls or barriers found in nature are formed by solids and liquids where the atoms or molecules are in contact to make a surface. In the upper atmosphere if we were to scale water vapor molecules up to the size of regulation soft balls they would be about 40 miles apart and that is not a shield when the heating IR quanta go by like birdshot at lightspeed.
The good news is that the scoundrels are running scared and are trying hard to figure out how they can keep their reputations, careers and perhaps degrees as some are beginning to think maybe these Ph.D.s should be rescinded in a cleansing or flushing action. This would be one way to reduce the surplus.
The prototype Ph.D. worked a long time to get his degree and spends the next several decades grousing that he is poorly paid compared to MD’s who didn’t go to school as long. They have the idea that they are paid for what they did and not for what they do. Most are paid to teach other people how to be Ph.D.s in a classic academic pyramid scheme.
That MD’s save lives while Ph.D.s put young people to sleep never enters the mind of the egomaniac smart feller with too many sheepskins. It is this mindset that justifies grants for projects he knows to be nonsense. Grants are not sought for science, but for money and revenge. He will never feel like a criminal, but these are the criminals of our time having made off with far more than Bernie Madoff.
Adrian Vance
The new Soloman paper, published in the journal SCIENCE, “…one of the most respected in the world,” according to their PR handouts, is now discussing the role of water vapor in the upper atmosphere, at the edge of the troposphere. This is a strange approach to the obvious truth and one well qualified by Dr. Soloman’s continuing insistence that man is to blame.
We call it a stange approach because the amount of water vapor at the top of the troposphere or bottom of the stratosphere is about 1/1000th what it is in the lower atmosphere due to low temperatures causing precipiation. Again more magic is assumed in postulating yet another “shield” when none can exist as gases cannot make surfaces.
The only reflectors, walls or barriers found in nature are formed by solids and liquids where the atoms or molecules are in contact to make a surface. In the upper atmosphere if we were to scale water vapor molecules up to the size of regulation soft balls they would be about 40 miles apart and that is not a shield when the heating IR quanta go by like birdshot at lightspeed.
The good news is that the scoundrels are running scared and are trying hard to figure out how they can keep their reputations, careers and perhaps degrees as some are beginning to think maybe these Ph.D.s should be rescinded in a cleansing or flushing action. This would be one way to reduce the surplus.
The prototype Ph.D. worked a long time to get his degree and spends the next several decades grousing that he is poorly paid compared to MD’s who didn’t go to school as long. They have the idea that they are paid for what they did and not for what they do. Most are paid to teach other people how to be Ph.D.s in a classic academic pyramid scheme.
That MD’s save lives while Ph.D.s put young people to sleep never enters the mind of the egomaniac smart feller with too many sheepskins. It is this mindset that justifies grants for projects he knows to be nonsense. Grants are not sought for science, but for money and revenge. He will never feel like a criminal, but these are the criminals of our time having made off with far more than Bernie Madoff.
Adrian Vance
Wednesday, February 03, 2010
Reporting The News
The American Association of Retired Persons, AARP, has a new survey and ad appeal to dropped-out members as many are leaving. The survey is a carefully worded “push poll” to make you feel like an idiot if you don’t come running back to them. We doubt they will get a 0.01% response from this garbage. And, they have proved they just don’t get it.
Several major corporations pay their top guys millions who take sides politically, going liberal-progressive and then wonder why 40% of their business is gone. Major newspapers and TV networks led this movement with high visibility in their ballistic trajectory. The AARP is now on that path.
Surveys show the American electorate breaks into quintiles, with a hard corps gun , Bible, pickup truck conservative fifth, then a soft conservative group, an “I don’t know” middle, a young liberal-left group and finally a hard-line, dope-smoking, progressive, love-communism bunch.
The latter group is a Luddite reincarnation hating corporations, “the rich” and work-success ethic. Show them a picture of Sarah Palin and they pass out, but they make a lot of noise. Too many top CEO’s cannot differentiate phony noise from valid objections.
On the January 31, 2010 “This Week Show,” Barbara Walters interviewed Senator elect Scott Brown. Her first line was, “You were arrested for shoplifting when you were 12,” and sat back with the same smirking disdain Charles Gibson gave Sarah Palin. Mr. Brown dodged the sandbag, but we were disappointed he did not attack with, “What kind of question is that? What the Hell kind of person are you? Juvenile pranks are expunged by law. From what cesspool did that come? ABC?”
Bernie Goldberg documented mountains of hate in “Bias,” one of his several books on the media. Other are, “100 People Who Are Screwing Up America” and “A Slobbering Love Affair” accounting of media bias for Barack Obama. However, by far the most stunning story of that campaign came from a single statement on the Sean Hannity Show by Michelle Malkin who revealed the New York Times reporter Stephanie Straun uncovered the ACORN corruption-Obama connection, but killed the story saying “It would have been a game changer!” In other words, Mr. Obama would not have been elected had the New York Times done its job by reporting the news!
Adrian Vance
Several major corporations pay their top guys millions who take sides politically, going liberal-progressive and then wonder why 40% of their business is gone. Major newspapers and TV networks led this movement with high visibility in their ballistic trajectory. The AARP is now on that path.
Surveys show the American electorate breaks into quintiles, with a hard corps gun , Bible, pickup truck conservative fifth, then a soft conservative group, an “I don’t know” middle, a young liberal-left group and finally a hard-line, dope-smoking, progressive, love-communism bunch.
The latter group is a Luddite reincarnation hating corporations, “the rich” and work-success ethic. Show them a picture of Sarah Palin and they pass out, but they make a lot of noise. Too many top CEO’s cannot differentiate phony noise from valid objections.
On the January 31, 2010 “This Week Show,” Barbara Walters interviewed Senator elect Scott Brown. Her first line was, “You were arrested for shoplifting when you were 12,” and sat back with the same smirking disdain Charles Gibson gave Sarah Palin. Mr. Brown dodged the sandbag, but we were disappointed he did not attack with, “What kind of question is that? What the Hell kind of person are you? Juvenile pranks are expunged by law. From what cesspool did that come? ABC?”
Bernie Goldberg documented mountains of hate in “Bias,” one of his several books on the media. Other are, “100 People Who Are Screwing Up America” and “A Slobbering Love Affair” accounting of media bias for Barack Obama. However, by far the most stunning story of that campaign came from a single statement on the Sean Hannity Show by Michelle Malkin who revealed the New York Times reporter Stephanie Straun uncovered the ACORN corruption-Obama connection, but killed the story saying “It would have been a game changer!” In other words, Mr. Obama would not have been elected had the New York Times done its job by reporting the news!
Adrian Vance
